A major earthquake in Japan may cause a 0.5 percentage point drop in global economic growth this year. The long-term impact of the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is still difficult to estimate.
The Great East Japan Earthquake hit Japan's industry. In today's globalization, the Japanese industry cannot really restore its vitality, and to a large extent it also affects the international industrial chain.
According to a survey conducted by a reporter in Japan, from the perspective of global industrial division of labor, the earthquake in Japan will affect three major industries in the world. Rethinking the global supply chain system was also put on the agenda after this earthquake in Japan.
The automotive industry: The automotive industry is the victimized industry that has the largest number of parts and components.
In addition to damage caused by damage to factories in the disaster-stricken areas, Japanese large-scale automobile manufacturers were forced to cut production and stop production due to insufficient supply of parts, and overseas factories were also affected.
A finished car is said to have 30,000 parts and one part is missing. The car cannot be assembled. Toyota Motor Corporation announced on March 22 that due to shortage of parts and other reasons, domestic automobile production was suspended until the 26th – this is Toyota's fifth stop production statement after the earthquake. Honda also announced on March 22 that for the same reason, domestic cars will stop production.
Japanese auto companies have adopted the means of purchasing necessary parts and suppressing inventory. Each large auto manufacturer has a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises that provide parts. Many of these companies have exclusive technology and are unique to large auto manufacturers. Without branches, many companies manufacturing automobile parts in Japan are concentrated in the East Japan region. The earthquake damaged these small and medium-sized enterprises and they were unable to supply them on time. Large auto makers faced the reality of “a woman cannot easily drink without riceâ€.
The extent to which domestic automakers in Japan are affected by automakers' production is evident in the number of automakers. According to a report by Kyodo News, data on March 25 showed that the number of cars produced by eight major automobile manufacturers in Japan was reduced by approximately 356,600. Since it is difficult to predict the time for recovery in the true sense, the number of production-reducing cars will increase in the future.
Japanese automobile manufacturers mostly set up factories overseas. The local supply rate of parts and components reaches 90%. However, as 10% of key parts still come from Japan, these manufacturers have stopped production for a long time, and the auto parts of overseas factories cannot be guaranteed, and the production is affected. China, the world’s largest auto market, is also involved.
Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicles Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd., currently cuts production significantly. The production plan of the factory located in Xiangfan on the 26th is already less than one-third of the normal time, and it is in a semi-discontinued state. The reason is that the production of key components such as engines and transmissions in Japan cannot be supplied.
The impact of insufficient supply of parts is expanding into the global automotive industry. According to the report of Japan’s Asahi Shimbun, due to the difficulties encountered in importing parts from Japan, General Motors of the United States had to face a knock-on effect. A small truck factory in Louisiana was forced to stop production on the 21st, and then a New York factory that supplied the engine had to lay off 59 people.
General Motors Corp.'s plants in Spain and Germany are also temporarily suspended. Ford Motor Company of the United States has completely stopped orders for black and red passenger cars on the 25th, due to difficulties in importing paint from Japan.
Due to obstacles in the electronic components imported from Hitachi, the European diesel engine production line of the PSA Peugeot Citroën Group was also directly affected. Japan's close neighbor Korea imported 64.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2010, mainly imported parts and raw materials. Due to the sharp drop in gearbox inventory imported from Japan, the Renault-Samsung factory in Busan has been canceling overtime from the 18th and the production was suspended on Saturdays.
According to survey data released by the US investigation company IHS on the 25th, due to the sharp decline in Japanese companies' production, parts imported from Japan cannot be delivered on time, and it is expected that production of automobiles worldwide will reduce production by 600,000 vehicles by the end of March. If the production of Japanese companies fails to return to normal as soon as possible, after two months of earthquakes, worldwide production of cars may drop by as much as 30%.
The nuclear power industry: the choice of advance and retreat If the automobile industry is related to the present of Japan and the world, the nuclear power industry is even more related to the future of Japan and the world.
The Fukushima Daiichi accident was a heavy blow to Japan’s energy policy. According to a survey conducted by the Japan Atomic Energy Association, more than 40% of the people previously had a positive attitude toward the use of nuclear power, and now only about 10%. Nuclear power generation provides 30% of Japan's electricity demand, and the number of people with negative attitudes increases. The impact on Japan’s power structure is extremely important. Taking into account the prevention of global warming, it is difficult to increase the use of thermal power generation as an alternative energy source. Solar energy, wind energy, and biomass Renewable energy such as power generation is the direction of development, but the supply of electricity is far from enough.
Although it is impossible for Japan to abandon nuclear power due to depravity. However, the road will be very tortuous.
Increasing the export of nuclear power facilities is the focus of the Japanese government's strategy for setting new economic growth. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry predicts that by 2020, the world nuclear power construction market will have an annual scale of 16 trillion yen. Japan’s Toshiba, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Hitachi have maintained world-leading levels in certain nuclear power technology fields. The promotion of nuclear power facilities in the Chinese countries also shows certain advantages. Vietnam and Thailand have expressed strong interest in Japan’s nuclear power facilities. Previously, Japanese officials and civilians have also made great efforts in promoting nuclear power facilities.
After the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, foreign partners are retreating, and world public opinion is also a change. Prior to this, the development of nuclear power that does not emit carbon dioxide gas is a world trend, and there is a great potential for “rejuvenation of nuclear powerâ€. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant The accident poured cold water on "nuclear power fever."
Some countries began to change their thinking. The seven nuclear power generating units built in Germany before 1980 stopped operating. The US Congress’s call for postponing the construction of new nuclear power plants is also growing. In this case, Japan also interrupted the construction of two nuclear power plants under construction in Aomori Prefecture. This has had a fatal impact on Japan's nuclear power infrastructure exports.
In the long run, Japan’s road to exporting nuclear power facilities is not impossible. Prof. James E. O'Ore of the University of Vanderbilt in the United States published an article on March 25 stating that “Japan should demonstrate its determination to develop nuclear power by building safer nuclear power plants. Toshiba is learning the lessons of this accident and based on nuclear power plants. The highly safe technology led by the modularization will become the driving force behind the reconstruction of nuclear power plants."
However, a nuclear leakage accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant of Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. was a big hit for all manufacturers that focused their strategy on producing nuclear reactors. Toshiba, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi, which are strategically focused on exporting nuclear facilities, must re-adjust their business strategies in order to survive and develop. If companies in other countries produce nuclear power equipment, they will inevitably fall into trouble.
The information industry information industry was also damaged in this earthquake in Japan.
Japan’s semiconductor production accounts for about one-fifth of the world’s share. In addition to the damage caused by the earthquake to semiconductor factories, planned power outages seriously restrict the recovery of semiconductor production.
Renesas, the largest semiconductor company in Japan, has 12 factories in Japan. Eight of them stopped production in the Tohoku and Kanto areas under the influence of the earthquake. On March 16th, the factories in Tokyo's Ome City and the factories in Yonezawa, Yamagata Prefecture on the 19th were difficult to start. However, the production capacity is still less than half of that before the earthquake. Damage to production equipment is not the main reason. The culprit is the planned blackout. Semiconductor generation requires a lot of power. An instantaneous power outage or a low voltage can cause the production line to stop operating. Once stopped, the equipment must be cleaned and the product being manufactured removed.
Engineers and technicians said that the production line will stop once and it will take one week to start again. The two other semiconductor-producing companies, Fujitsu and Toshiba, all stopped production in a number of factories in the Northeast region.
Tokyo Electric Power Company's power supply capacity was 52 million kilowatts before the great earthquake, and it dropped sharply to 31 million kilowatts after the earthquake. After repairing the damaged thermal power facilities and accepting the support of other electric power companies, as of the 23rd, Tokyo Electric Power's power supply capacity has recovered to 37.5 million kilowatts. The company plans to increase to 43 million kilowatts by the end of April.
According to relevant person of Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tokyo Electric Power Company's power supply capacity cannot exceed 50 million kilowatts in the future. Therefore, the media believes that in the future for a long period of time, the power supply situation in Japan will be relatively tight, and measures such as planned power outages may persist until next year.
The production of semiconductor companies is difficult to recover. In addition to constraining the automotive industry, this also constrains the production of world-wide information technology products, because Japan maintains a world-leading level in many areas of information technology. Japan has many cutting-edge semiconductor device technologies that other countries cannot manufacture.
For example, in the Apple iPad iPad2, at least five kinds of electronic components are produced by Japanese manufacturers. In particular, the display screen can only use Japanese products, so the iPad2 is likely to cut production. In addition, Nokia, the world’s largest mobile phone maker, also has a shortage of parts imported from Japan, and some production lines may suspend production.
Modern companies are becoming more and more globalized. To develop New Products as quickly as possible and organize joint research projects, it is common for companies to use cross-company and cross-border industries to use mutual cooperation and provide parts to become an organic part of a company’s new products. In the event of an unforeseen disaster, it is also easy to pull the whole body into action. If it is not handled properly, it will result in a loss.
As the Great East Japan Earthquake caused a heavy blow to Japanese industry, it has a huge impact on the Japanese economy. Nihon Koichi, Minister of Economic Investigation of the Japan Life Basic Research Institute believes that before 2011, Japan’s economic growth rate is expected to be less than 2%. Coupled with the impact of the earthquake disaster on the industry, the Japanese economy is likely to have zero growth.
Due to the high degree of globalization of Japanese companies and the impact of the earthquake on the international industrial chain, the impact on the world economy is also very large. Many experts regard the major earthquakes in Japan and the instability in the Middle East as an important factor affecting the world economy. The U.S. Investment Bank Giant Morgan Stanley published a research report on the 23rd, saying that the earthquake in Japan may cause a 0.5% drop in global economic growth this year. The long-term impact of the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is still difficult to estimate.
The global economic recovery remains fragile. In an interview with the World Bank’s deputy governor Indrawati, the recovery of the world economy is driven by both demand and supply factors. From the perspective of demand, the economic intervention measures of various governments have basically approached the limits of their utility. The global economy in the post-crisis era has faced various challenges: from the European sovereign debt crisis to the high US unemployment rate. , And then in general inflation in emerging market countries. In 2011, new unfavorable factors gradually surfaced. Global oil prices pushed by the unstable political situation in the Middle East, rising global food prices, and natural disasters such as the Japan Earthquake threatened the recovery momentum of the global economy. .
The challenges faced by the global economy are not only testing the governments of various countries, but also being the areas of greatest concern for major international organizations. The World Bank, which has long been committed to promoting economic development and eliminating poverty, is naturally no exception.
In March 2011, the Deputy Managing Director of the World Bank, Sli Moorjani Indrawati, came to China and traveled to Jiangxi and other provinces to inspect relevant projects of the World Bank, and participated in the China Development High-level Forum and other activities in Beijing. .
Indravati, who served as Indonesia’s Finance Minister from 2005 to 2010, successfully reformed Indonesia and led Indonesia out of the global economic crisis, earning the respect of its global counterparts. The experience of the Indonesian Minister of Finance has also allowed Indrawati to accumulate rich practical experience in economic development, poverty eradication, and combating corruption in developing countries, providing a brand-new cooperation between the World Bank and developing countries. Perspectives and ideas.
The Great East Japan Earthquake hit Japan's industry. In today's globalization, the Japanese industry cannot really restore its vitality, and to a large extent it also affects the international industrial chain.
According to a survey conducted by a reporter in Japan, from the perspective of global industrial division of labor, the earthquake in Japan will affect three major industries in the world. Rethinking the global supply chain system was also put on the agenda after this earthquake in Japan.
The automotive industry: The automotive industry is the victimized industry that has the largest number of parts and components.
In addition to damage caused by damage to factories in the disaster-stricken areas, Japanese large-scale automobile manufacturers were forced to cut production and stop production due to insufficient supply of parts, and overseas factories were also affected.
A finished car is said to have 30,000 parts and one part is missing. The car cannot be assembled. Toyota Motor Corporation announced on March 22 that due to shortage of parts and other reasons, domestic automobile production was suspended until the 26th – this is Toyota's fifth stop production statement after the earthquake. Honda also announced on March 22 that for the same reason, domestic cars will stop production.
Japanese auto companies have adopted the means of purchasing necessary parts and suppressing inventory. Each large auto manufacturer has a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises that provide parts. Many of these companies have exclusive technology and are unique to large auto manufacturers. Without branches, many companies manufacturing automobile parts in Japan are concentrated in the East Japan region. The earthquake damaged these small and medium-sized enterprises and they were unable to supply them on time. Large auto makers faced the reality of “a woman cannot easily drink without riceâ€.
The extent to which domestic automakers in Japan are affected by automakers' production is evident in the number of automakers. According to a report by Kyodo News, data on March 25 showed that the number of cars produced by eight major automobile manufacturers in Japan was reduced by approximately 356,600. Since it is difficult to predict the time for recovery in the true sense, the number of production-reducing cars will increase in the future.
Japanese automobile manufacturers mostly set up factories overseas. The local supply rate of parts and components reaches 90%. However, as 10% of key parts still come from Japan, these manufacturers have stopped production for a long time, and the auto parts of overseas factories cannot be guaranteed, and the production is affected. China, the world’s largest auto market, is also involved.
Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicles Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd., currently cuts production significantly. The production plan of the factory located in Xiangfan on the 26th is already less than one-third of the normal time, and it is in a semi-discontinued state. The reason is that the production of key components such as engines and transmissions in Japan cannot be supplied.
The impact of insufficient supply of parts is expanding into the global automotive industry. According to the report of Japan’s Asahi Shimbun, due to the difficulties encountered in importing parts from Japan, General Motors of the United States had to face a knock-on effect. A small truck factory in Louisiana was forced to stop production on the 21st, and then a New York factory that supplied the engine had to lay off 59 people.
General Motors Corp.'s plants in Spain and Germany are also temporarily suspended. Ford Motor Company of the United States has completely stopped orders for black and red passenger cars on the 25th, due to difficulties in importing paint from Japan.
Due to obstacles in the electronic components imported from Hitachi, the European diesel engine production line of the PSA Peugeot Citroën Group was also directly affected. Japan's close neighbor Korea imported 64.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2010, mainly imported parts and raw materials. Due to the sharp drop in gearbox inventory imported from Japan, the Renault-Samsung factory in Busan has been canceling overtime from the 18th and the production was suspended on Saturdays.
According to survey data released by the US investigation company IHS on the 25th, due to the sharp decline in Japanese companies' production, parts imported from Japan cannot be delivered on time, and it is expected that production of automobiles worldwide will reduce production by 600,000 vehicles by the end of March. If the production of Japanese companies fails to return to normal as soon as possible, after two months of earthquakes, worldwide production of cars may drop by as much as 30%.
The nuclear power industry: the choice of advance and retreat If the automobile industry is related to the present of Japan and the world, the nuclear power industry is even more related to the future of Japan and the world.
The Fukushima Daiichi accident was a heavy blow to Japan’s energy policy. According to a survey conducted by the Japan Atomic Energy Association, more than 40% of the people previously had a positive attitude toward the use of nuclear power, and now only about 10%. Nuclear power generation provides 30% of Japan's electricity demand, and the number of people with negative attitudes increases. The impact on Japan’s power structure is extremely important. Taking into account the prevention of global warming, it is difficult to increase the use of thermal power generation as an alternative energy source. Solar energy, wind energy, and biomass Renewable energy such as power generation is the direction of development, but the supply of electricity is far from enough.
Although it is impossible for Japan to abandon nuclear power due to depravity. However, the road will be very tortuous.
Increasing the export of nuclear power facilities is the focus of the Japanese government's strategy for setting new economic growth. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry predicts that by 2020, the world nuclear power construction market will have an annual scale of 16 trillion yen. Japan’s Toshiba, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Hitachi have maintained world-leading levels in certain nuclear power technology fields. The promotion of nuclear power facilities in the Chinese countries also shows certain advantages. Vietnam and Thailand have expressed strong interest in Japan’s nuclear power facilities. Previously, Japanese officials and civilians have also made great efforts in promoting nuclear power facilities.
After the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, foreign partners are retreating, and world public opinion is also a change. Prior to this, the development of nuclear power that does not emit carbon dioxide gas is a world trend, and there is a great potential for “rejuvenation of nuclear powerâ€. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant The accident poured cold water on "nuclear power fever."
Some countries began to change their thinking. The seven nuclear power generating units built in Germany before 1980 stopped operating. The US Congress’s call for postponing the construction of new nuclear power plants is also growing. In this case, Japan also interrupted the construction of two nuclear power plants under construction in Aomori Prefecture. This has had a fatal impact on Japan's nuclear power infrastructure exports.
In the long run, Japan’s road to exporting nuclear power facilities is not impossible. Prof. James E. O'Ore of the University of Vanderbilt in the United States published an article on March 25 stating that “Japan should demonstrate its determination to develop nuclear power by building safer nuclear power plants. Toshiba is learning the lessons of this accident and based on nuclear power plants. The highly safe technology led by the modularization will become the driving force behind the reconstruction of nuclear power plants."
However, a nuclear leakage accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant of Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. was a big hit for all manufacturers that focused their strategy on producing nuclear reactors. Toshiba, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi, which are strategically focused on exporting nuclear facilities, must re-adjust their business strategies in order to survive and develop. If companies in other countries produce nuclear power equipment, they will inevitably fall into trouble.
The information industry information industry was also damaged in this earthquake in Japan.
Japan’s semiconductor production accounts for about one-fifth of the world’s share. In addition to the damage caused by the earthquake to semiconductor factories, planned power outages seriously restrict the recovery of semiconductor production.
Renesas, the largest semiconductor company in Japan, has 12 factories in Japan. Eight of them stopped production in the Tohoku and Kanto areas under the influence of the earthquake. On March 16th, the factories in Tokyo's Ome City and the factories in Yonezawa, Yamagata Prefecture on the 19th were difficult to start. However, the production capacity is still less than half of that before the earthquake. Damage to production equipment is not the main reason. The culprit is the planned blackout. Semiconductor generation requires a lot of power. An instantaneous power outage or a low voltage can cause the production line to stop operating. Once stopped, the equipment must be cleaned and the product being manufactured removed.
Engineers and technicians said that the production line will stop once and it will take one week to start again. The two other semiconductor-producing companies, Fujitsu and Toshiba, all stopped production in a number of factories in the Northeast region.
Tokyo Electric Power Company's power supply capacity was 52 million kilowatts before the great earthquake, and it dropped sharply to 31 million kilowatts after the earthquake. After repairing the damaged thermal power facilities and accepting the support of other electric power companies, as of the 23rd, Tokyo Electric Power's power supply capacity has recovered to 37.5 million kilowatts. The company plans to increase to 43 million kilowatts by the end of April.
According to relevant person of Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tokyo Electric Power Company's power supply capacity cannot exceed 50 million kilowatts in the future. Therefore, the media believes that in the future for a long period of time, the power supply situation in Japan will be relatively tight, and measures such as planned power outages may persist until next year.
The production of semiconductor companies is difficult to recover. In addition to constraining the automotive industry, this also constrains the production of world-wide information technology products, because Japan maintains a world-leading level in many areas of information technology. Japan has many cutting-edge semiconductor device technologies that other countries cannot manufacture.
For example, in the Apple iPad iPad2, at least five kinds of electronic components are produced by Japanese manufacturers. In particular, the display screen can only use Japanese products, so the iPad2 is likely to cut production. In addition, Nokia, the world’s largest mobile phone maker, also has a shortage of parts imported from Japan, and some production lines may suspend production.
Modern companies are becoming more and more globalized. To develop New Products as quickly as possible and organize joint research projects, it is common for companies to use cross-company and cross-border industries to use mutual cooperation and provide parts to become an organic part of a company’s new products. In the event of an unforeseen disaster, it is also easy to pull the whole body into action. If it is not handled properly, it will result in a loss.
As the Great East Japan Earthquake caused a heavy blow to Japanese industry, it has a huge impact on the Japanese economy. Nihon Koichi, Minister of Economic Investigation of the Japan Life Basic Research Institute believes that before 2011, Japan’s economic growth rate is expected to be less than 2%. Coupled with the impact of the earthquake disaster on the industry, the Japanese economy is likely to have zero growth.
Due to the high degree of globalization of Japanese companies and the impact of the earthquake on the international industrial chain, the impact on the world economy is also very large. Many experts regard the major earthquakes in Japan and the instability in the Middle East as an important factor affecting the world economy. The U.S. Investment Bank Giant Morgan Stanley published a research report on the 23rd, saying that the earthquake in Japan may cause a 0.5% drop in global economic growth this year. The long-term impact of the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is still difficult to estimate.
The global economic recovery remains fragile. In an interview with the World Bank’s deputy governor Indrawati, the recovery of the world economy is driven by both demand and supply factors. From the perspective of demand, the economic intervention measures of various governments have basically approached the limits of their utility. The global economy in the post-crisis era has faced various challenges: from the European sovereign debt crisis to the high US unemployment rate. , And then in general inflation in emerging market countries. In 2011, new unfavorable factors gradually surfaced. Global oil prices pushed by the unstable political situation in the Middle East, rising global food prices, and natural disasters such as the Japan Earthquake threatened the recovery momentum of the global economy. .
The challenges faced by the global economy are not only testing the governments of various countries, but also being the areas of greatest concern for major international organizations. The World Bank, which has long been committed to promoting economic development and eliminating poverty, is naturally no exception.
In March 2011, the Deputy Managing Director of the World Bank, Sli Moorjani Indrawati, came to China and traveled to Jiangxi and other provinces to inspect relevant projects of the World Bank, and participated in the China Development High-level Forum and other activities in Beijing. .
Indravati, who served as Indonesia’s Finance Minister from 2005 to 2010, successfully reformed Indonesia and led Indonesia out of the global economic crisis, earning the respect of its global counterparts. The experience of the Indonesian Minister of Finance has also allowed Indrawati to accumulate rich practical experience in economic development, poverty eradication, and combating corruption in developing countries, providing a brand-new cooperation between the World Bank and developing countries. Perspectives and ideas.
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