The field of investment robots may be a trend that has only recently emerged, but I have been engaged in the construction and investment of autonomous equipment for about 30 years. The construction work was due to my university's knowledge of wireless communication and control systems, so I designed my first drone 20 years ago. The investment is due to being a venture capitalist. I have been investing in cutting-edge technology companies for the past ten years, including China's leading manufacturing companies and leading US marketing and design companies. In the meantime, what excites me the most is that in 2013, I met aviation scientist and dreamer Hu Huazhi, who was also the founder of the drone company Yihang. The world's first passenger unmanned drone, Yihang 184, developed by Yihang Air, can carry one passenger and has a battery life of 23 minutes. At the end of 2014, GGV Capital invested $10 million in Billion Air and witnessed its first manned flight test this summer. About a year later, Uber officially started the research and development of autonomous vehicles.
Corporate financing in the field of robotics
According to CB Insights data, in 2015, the global robotics industry received a total of 587 million US dollars of financing, the highest in history and strong development momentum. It is expected that the financing amount in 2016 will reach a new high. In addition to investing in robotics, venture capital firms are also investing in artificial intelligence technology because artificial intelligence technology can give autonomous robots the ability to "think". In the second quarter of 2016 alone, artificial intelligence technology companies received more than $1 billion in financing. US investors have seen the huge potential of robotic startups. In addition to US companies, they have also invested heavily in Chinese hardware start-ups. At the same time, Chinese investors have witnessed the success of hardware unicorn companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi and AAC on a global scale, so they are eager to provide financial support for the next generation of robot hardware companies in China and overseas.
Chinese demand provides opportunities
At GGV Capital, we believe that the robotics industry has two segments with special prospects: industrial robots and service robots. At present, the Chinese market is the largest potential market for enterprise development in these two areas. Creating next-generation robots, especially collaborative robots that work with factory floor personnel, can be said to be close to the opportunities for start-ups to enter China's large-scale manufacturing and service industries.
The global industrial robot technology field has matured, and industrial robots account for more than 80% of all deployed in-place robots. Industrial robots are mainly deployed in the factory assembly line, and the more mature markets include the United States, Japan and Europe. The Chinese government strongly supports the development of automation technology and hopes to use robot modules to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese companies. At the same time, as the world's largest manufacturing economy, there are currently only 36 industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers in China. By comparison, the number of industrial robots in Germany is 10,000. There are 292 units in Japan, 314 units in Japan and 478 units in Korea. In 2015, the number of industrial robots purchased by Chinese manufacturing companies accounted for 28% of the total global robot sales. In the next few years, Chinese companies will purchase hundreds of thousands of industrial robots to meet the rising labor costs. More mature robot companies like KUKA, fanuc, Yaskawa and abb are the backbone of industrial robotics, while Grabit (developing robots that electrostatically adsorb objects), Rethink And the rising stars of Life RoboTIcs are also making great strides and will become an important competitive force in this field.
Service-oriented robots are mainly used to set up tasks for restaurants, hotels, offices, hospitals and homes. They are still in an emerging market stage in China, but they have great potential for start-ups. Also due to rising labor costs, restaurants and hotels hope to deploy service-based robots to increase long-term profits. Service robots can transport items inside the building, send food and parcels from the arrival of the truck to the customer's door, serve, deliver medicines to inpatients in the hospital, retrieve goods in the warehouse, act as a receptionist, or interact with children. Interaction and so on. Although in the early stages, start-ups such as Fetch (picking robot), Savioke (Relay hotel robot) and Keenon (micro-robot interacting with children) have already realized the commercial deployment of service robots in the next 5 to 10 years, the service There are still some breakthrough companies in the robotics field, especially in the US and China, and there will even be several "robot unicorn" companies.
Investing in robots: How is the return on investment broken?
Like other cutting-edge technologies, robotics has great potential for development, but large-scale deployments also face obstacles and challenges. In the industrial sector, it is easy to predict the potential rate of return, because robots have been used in manufacturing for a long time, so it is very simple to weigh whether it is worth investing in robots. Factory managers can compare current labor costs to labor costs after deploying robots, or compare current productivity with post-robot productivity. Investors can also evaluate the profit potential of industrial robot companies based on similar indicators.
However, in the field of emerging service robots, it is still not possible to clearly predict future returns. For consumer service robots like home automation and toy robots, they must be attractive to the mass market, at a low price, and bring significant benefits to consumers. But at present, most consumer service robots do not meet these three standards, which are “too expensiveâ€, “too technical†or have no obvious benefits of “must buy†for mass consumers. For service robots that are used in businesses (including offices, warehouses, hospitals, retail stores, etc.), ROI is relatively easy to predict. If service robots can reduce labor costs, help workers increase productivity, or increase new service offerings to customers, it is easier to estimate its monetary value.
Global cooperation
Where will the next robot unicorn startup start? The most likely scenario is that this robotic unicorn company is global in nature and fully combines and leverages the technological strengths of China, the United States, Israel, Germany and Japan. Since robots are essentially just technical integrations in hardware, sensors and software, Chinese start-ups with more expertise in manufacturing and supply chain logistics are more likely to achieve global success. However, Chinese start-ups can only seize the global market share by leveraging US, Israeli, engineering, marketing, and sales talents, and working with mature companies in the world's leading robotic economies such as Japan and Germany. This one also applies to American robotic start-ups, who all need to look globally and base their global thinking. Regardless of where the headquarters are located, the first robotic unicorn company may have global operations or partners. Just like Vincross, a robotics company recently invested by GGV, is based in Beijing but is creating a team in the United States.
At the beginning of the basic technical shift in market share, the robotics industry offers a huge opportunity for start-ups to gain market share. The next generation of industrial robots and emerging service robots will require inexpensive sensors, radar, 3D printers, language and image processing technology, cameras and artificial intelligence software to reduce costs and promote widespread use. If entrepreneurs and venture capitalists can now focus on creating and investing in these core components, we should be able to see millions of new robots in use in many industries over the next decade.
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