"Investor News" analyst Chen Yanfang
The 4G era has come quietly.
Recently, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei released the wind and expected that 4G licenses could be issued this year, which caused a stir in the industry.
However, what needs to be faced is that 4G is the development trend of the communications industry, but base station construction and terminal product research and development are the biggest shortcomings that restrict the development of domestic 4G. Among the three operators, China Mobile has stepped up the base station deployment. 4G is expected to drive about 100 billion investment in the upstream and downstream, but who can benefit from it first?
Anatomy of the 4G industry chain
What is 4G? Presumably, 3G investors are familiar with it. From the perspective of sensibility, the Internet speed is fast, but 4G is faster.
4G is 2000 times faster than dial-up Internet access, and 10 times faster than 3G networks. It only takes a few minutes to download a 2G movie; there is basically no delay when watching movies or video transmission ...
4G is the abbreviation of the fourth generation of mobile communication and technology. Compared with 3G, it has faster speed, better user experience, and can improve spectrum utilization. At present, China's leading 4G technology standard is TDD-LTE.
There are two major 4G standards in the world, namely FDD-LTE and TDD-LTE. The latter is mainly dominated by China Mobile, Datang Telecom, ZTE, Huawei and other companies.
The technical performance of TDD-LTE and TDD-LTE is not much different, but FDD is still the mainstream of the 4G era globally. According to data from the Global Mobile Suppliers Association, as of March 19, there were 156 commercial LTE networks worldwide, distributed in 67 countries, of which only 14 LTE TDD networks.
Overseas 4G network construction has begun, but domestic 4G scale construction has just begun. In a research report entitled "4G Feast Opening", CITIC Securities pointed out: "From the perspective of the development of technical standards, frequency allocation, terminal preparation, and network equipment preparation, the main preparations for 4G have been initially prepared."
At present, A-shares are mixed with 4G concepts, so who can enjoy the feast at the earliest?
In the 4G construction stage, according to the benefit cycle from early to late: network planning and design, the listed companies involved are Fuchun Communications, Jiesai Technology, etc .; wireless supporting equipment, the listed companies involved are, Dafu Technology, Wuhan Fangu Etc .; major equipment suppliers, including Huawei and ZTE; network coverage optimization, including Sanyuanda, 3D communications, Century Dingli, etc .; transmission equipment including Fiberhome communications, etc.
The first to benefit from network planning
The pre-planning, feasibility study and network planning and design industries will become the front-end of the 4G investment cycle and will benefit the earliest.
The main participants in the network construction technology service market, in addition to the communication network construction technology service organizations to which the three major operators belong, there are also private third-party communication network technology service providers such as Fuchun Communications and state-owned third-party service providers Jiesai Technology.
In the past 5 years, Fuchun Communications has generated 70% to 80% of its revenue from China Mobile. It plans to add more than 200,000 TDD-LTE base stations in 2013, and 20,000 in 2012. Fuchun Communications is expected to receive about 16,000 4G Base station orders.
Unlike Fuchun Communications which relies on mobile, Jiesai Technology and Unicom have a good cooperative relationship for many years.
The available frequency bands of 3G and 4G are much higher than the earlier 2G, so more base stations need to be built, which will undoubtedly increase the demand for main equipment and related supporting equipment. The original base station needs to be upgraded. In terms of antennas, it is expected that the multi-frequency and multi-system antennas in the 4G era will have greater development. Compared with 3G, the number of antennas will increase.
Among the currently listed companies, Dafu Technology and Wuhan Fangu mainly produce radio frequency devices, and they are both Huawei's stable suppliers. The main product of Shenglu Communications is base station antennas.
Main equipment vendors are worth looking forward to
After the completion of the 4G pre-planning period, it will enter the construction period. This stage includes the main equipment vendors, transmission equipment and network optimization and other fields into the benefit period.
Two major companies including major equipment vendors, including Huawei and ZTE. In the first TDD-LTE tender for China Mobile, Huawei and ZTE accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for approximately 23% and 25%, respectively.
ZTE is a listed company in the comprehensive communications manufacturing industry. It has strong strengths in the four major areas of wireless products, network products, mobile terminals, and data products. It has leading advantages in R & D and commercial use in the TDD field. 4G is expected to become a breakthrough in ZTE's profit .
Wireless network optimization coverage refers to the use of equipment such as repeaters, trunk amplifiers, base station optimization, and antennas. From the perspective of time, network coverage will be synchronized with domestic 4G scale construction. CITIC Securities estimates that from 2013 to 2015, China's total investment in 4G wireless network optimization coverage market will be about 3.4 billion yuan, and the total investment in LTE wireless network optimization service market will be about 6.2 billion yuan, and the performance growth elasticity of this link will be in the entire industry chain. The largest and most beneficiary listed companies include Sanyuanda, 3D Communications and Century Dingli.
Sanyuanda is a professional manufacturer of mobile communication and mobile TV network optimization integrating R & D, production, sales and service. 3D Communication is an enterprise specializing in providing wireless products and network coverage solutions; Century Dingli is the domestic network optimization test equipment market Leading enterprise, with an annual income of 369 million yuan in 2012, although the operating profit is only 1 million, the company is expected to get a slice of the market in the 4G market.
Transmission equipment is one of the most important links in 4G construction. According to China Mobile's test, the peak speed of 4G communication Internet access will reach hundreds of megabits per second, which is more than 10 times the current speed of 3G Internet access, which requires stronger communication transmission capabilities.
The demand for transmission equipment comes from two aspects, namely the backhaul demand of 4G base stations and future expansion needs. The former is synchronized with or even ahead of the base station construction, and the latter will lag behind the base station construction. Fiberhome is a domestic provider of equipment and network solutions in the field of information and communication. It is an enterprise engaged in optical communication technology earlier. The backbone network products have closely followed Huawei's leading position.
Operators finally benefit
The 4G construction stage requires a lot of capital and technical support. Therefore, operators mainly focus on investment. Therefore, the impact on operators' performance will appear to decline first and then recover.
At present, the three major operators are not unanimously welcoming the arrival of 4G. China Mobile hopes to take advantage of 4G to rush to recover the situation as soon as possible, and China Unicom and Telecom hope to postpone to take advantage of 3G to win more markets and consolidate their position.
In addition to the licensing time, the 4G system also troubled the three companies. Among the two TDD-LTE and FDD-LTE systems, China Mobile undoubtedly chooses TDD. Unicom technically chooses FDD to smoothly upgrade, but TDD is China's leading push Yes, it is unclear whether China Unicom can obtain an FDD license.
Telecom is the most entangled, because the 3G standard it uses cannot support a smooth transition to FDD and TDD, and it is costly to build a new network. Wang Xiaochu, a telecommunications "one brother", publicly stated at the 2012 performance announcement: "China Telecom hopes to obtain the FDD-LTE license. If the government department does not issue the FDD-LTE license, China Telecom will consider leasing the network from China Mobile, even with other Operators with TD technology jointly build TDD networks because they believe that cooperation is more efficient than building alone. "
After the 4G construction is completed, the terminal and chip are consumer-driven. Compared with the original 3G terminal, the chip and baseband module are mainly replaced. The benefit time is expected to be two years later than the start of the main device.
4G terminal providers not only need to be able to provide 4G mobile phones of various standards, but also need to combine the service design of operators. This is similar to 3G. Operators and terminal equipment vendors cooperate to achieve a win-win situation. Domestic competitive terminals include ZTE.
ZTE has a huge business and benefits from its main equipment. In terms of mobile phones, smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2012 were the fourth in the world, closely followed by Samsung, Apple and RIM; Spreadtrum Communications is committed to the core chips of wireless communication and multimedia terminals , The development of dedicated software and reference design platforms, which were listed on the NASDAQ in 2007 and have an advantage over the TD field in the field of TDD chips.
In addition, content providers will also be an indispensable part of the 4G industry chain. With the increase in network speed, whether it is social, online shopping, games, animation, or video film and television demand will be more robust.
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