Augmented Reality (AR) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are currently the most talked-about technologies in the industry. While AR has been around for a few years, its real-world applications—whether in the form of concept products or actual deployments—have not yet made a significant impact. However, this year saw a major shift as Apple and Google announced their entries into the AR space within just a few months of each other. This move by tech giants has set off a wave of excitement and anticipation for AR’s future.
A 2015 report by Digi-Capital titled “Augmented/Virtual Reality Report 2015†sparked a lot of debate and has been widely referenced by media outlets ever since. At that time, VR was more advanced in terms of product development than AR, with faster progress being made in the VR space. The report predicted that by 2020, the global VR/AR market would reach $150 billion, with AR accounting for $120 billion and VR only $30 billion. The reasoning was that while VR offered an immersive experience appealing to gamers, it had limited value for the average consumer. It seems that Digi-Capital's prediction about the explosive growth of the AR consumer market two years ago is now coming true.
At the recent WWDC conference, Apple launched ARKit, its mobile-based AR SDK, which surprised many in the VR/AR industry. Although Apple wasn’t the first to develop an AR SDK, it was the first to deploy it at scale. Known for its focus on user experience and premium branding, Apple takes great care before launching any new product, ensuring it creates a ripple effect. Tim Cook saw the success of Pokémon Go on the App Store and recognized the potential of AR on mobile devices. Even though the current AR environment isn't fully mature, deploying an AR SDK on smartphones is a logical step forward.
Apple holds a clear first-mover advantage over competitors like Google. With over 1 billion active iOS devices worldwide, and ARKit supporting Apple A9 or newer processors, the potential user base is massive. If more than half of these devices upgrade to iOS 11, that means 500 million iPhones and iPads could support ARKit—a goal that Apple is well-positioned to achieve.
On the Android side, Google's ARCore faces challenges. While aiming to reach 100 million supported devices by winter, it currently only supports Pixel and high-end Samsung models. Pixel shipments have been low, and even with Samsung's S8 sales, reaching the 100 million target remains difficult. Though Google is working with Huawei, Asus, and LG, the short-term deployment of ARCore still lags behind Apple’s ARKit.
Both iOS and Android have strong reasons to invest in mobile AR, but there are differences in their approaches. ARKit and ARCore are not entirely new innovations but rather enhancements based on existing hardware and software. From a traditional AR device perspective, they represent a shift from dedicated hardware to software-based solutions.
ARKit uses a Visual Inertial Odometry (VIO) system to track 6 degrees of freedom, combining visual tracking with inertial measurement. This allows for accurate plane detection and overlay, resulting in impressive AR demos such as IKEA furniture placement and 3D measuring tools.
ARCore, built on Google’s Tango platform, leverages previous work in 3D modeling and SLAM technology. While Tango faced challenges due to hardware requirements and calibration complexity, ARCore has evolved to be more open and accessible, supporting multiple development environments and integrating many of Tango’s achievements.
As for whether the AR war will expand to new forms like AR glasses, it’s worth considering how mobile AR impacts existing head-mounted AR devices. Reports suggest that traditional smart headsets like Microsoft HoloLens, Oculus Rift, and HTC Vive may face challenges due to the rise of mobile AR. However, VR still offers a unique immersive experience that mobile AR can’t match, especially in gaming. High-end AR products like HoloLens are better suited for enterprise and specialized use cases, offering features like hybrid reality and richer interactions.
In summary, the rise of mobile AR has limited impact on existing head-mounted devices, but the relationship between them is more complementary than competitive. Mobile AR benefits from the large user base and mature ecosystem of smartphones, making it a crucial stepping stone for broader AR adoption. However, standalone AR glasses require a complete product development process, and building a new ecosystem takes time and effort.
In a recent interview, Tim Cook mentioned that the technology for creating excellent AR glasses doesn’t exist yet. While many technical challenges can be solved, the timeline remains uncertain. This reflects Apple’s cautious approach toward AR glasses.
Overall, the AR battle initiated by mobile devices has given Apple a strong start with ARKit’s rapid deployment on its large iOS base. Whether Android can catch up through its fragmented market remains to be seen. Before the next big leap in AR—like AR glasses—mobile AR will continue to play a vital role, acting as a warm-up for the broader AR revolution.
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