I have recently looked at the direction of development in the industry and have changed a lot.
First: the amount is up, the cost is going to go down, and the cost reduction is very demanding. Unlike the previous solar, the inverter is very similar. Solar energy dropped from 1 piece/GW to 2, 3 hairs in two or three years. If the inverter is calculated according to the power, it will drop a lot. Now the electric motor is also controlled like this, the battery is like this.
Second: technically, the domestic calculations are all in the second generation. The existing cars should be counted as the first generation or the 1.5th generation. The second generation is more miniaturized, integrated, and customized.
Third: The power indicators in new energy vehicles are getting bigger and bigger. OEMs are also more inclined to develop high-power projects. The reason is very simple, high power can do, low power is relatively simple, big deal can not be big. The power is large, the performance of the car is better, the acceleration, and the various indicators of 100 kilometers are good.
Fourth: Foreign batteries, batteries, BMS, motors, and electronic control suppliers' products are basically entering the second generation, even the third generation, and are very mature, with mature molding on different continents. The car market is in use. Domestically, it is really driven by domestic subsidies. It seems that many companies have achieved great success and progress in the field of new energy in the past two years, but it is really far away. For example: The battery Japan and South Korea, a factory built, a start, the main plant project one out, can directly talk about a five-year capacity plan and price, the domestic battery factory is basically not competitive, passenger car field. Other places are basically the status quo.
The above points can be classified:
0) Vehicle development: In fact, China's new energy vehicle development, the iterative algebra seems to be the most, such as JAC has done IEV6 behind IEV5, the internal system may have experienced 2 to 3 times of large modification, which is through the late exposure problem at the front end The agile development model for modifying the definition moved to the car. In principle, I do not agree with the introduction of users to participate in engineering vehicles or early immature products for market testing, but this is indeed the practice of a few domestic enterprises.
1) Cost: If the price of BOM products at the beginning of 2016 is carefully divided into battery system, electric drive system (motor, inverter), vehicle controller, power electronics (DC-DC+ charger) and air conditioning system (PTC And electric compressors), you will find that compared with 3 years ago, the price has already been smashed. If you follow the original single year, regardless of the maintenance and follow-up costs brought by the IPTV of the whole vehicle and system, if the certain subsidy is included, the story has already begun to play, which is why the current domestic new energy continues to heat up. OEMs are looking for suppliers who are willing to offer low-priced parts, keeping prices high and relying on subsidies as their main source of profit.
2) Supplier: Currently available to foreign suppliers and domestic suppliers:
(1) Foreign suppliers: Due to continuous improvement in these years, a lot of production capacity has also been placed. Due to the lack of demand in Europe and the United States, we are now looking at the domestic market and can do it for Chinese OEMs. The actual situation, the domestic OEM's capacity planning is a big difference in the situation of drawing cakes.
(2) Domestic suppliers: This can be subdivided into the original and subsequent entry. The original first batch of players, such as the driver, the manufacturer of power electronics, in fact, the initial amount in the industry is not large, the days are actually very hard, but the fruit of this victory is difficult to adhere to, because of the reasons for investment, The situation of manufacturing this piece is worse than that of traditional auto parts. With the clear situation in 2014 and 2015, things have become capital acquisitions and transfer of various industries. The most typical situation is charging piles and car charging. Machine and DC-DC, almost all of the power supply, photovoltaic all entered this field, pay attention to all.
3) Performance: The promotion of new energy vehicles has now been completely accelerated by Tesla and BYD, abstracting hundreds of kilometers to accelerate, and destroying the sports car, high-performance vehicles, and the torque output of the electrified low-speed range as a continuous selling point. Taking high power as an assessment point, there is also the need to reduce costs. The original instantaneous power is increased from 50KW to 100KW. In fact, the cost increase is limited. The rated power here is mainly at the highest speed section, so the current 2-speed gearbox Even the 3-speed gearbox is being tried.
4) Integration:
The fate of being integrated is doomed, because the meaning of the miniaturization of its own components can be put together. If you are independent, you can assemble the OEM or TIe1 for better assembly.
There are several specifications here.
(1) Inverter + DC / DC: generally double Motor + DC / DC, the first Bosch to 3008Hybrid program, Roewe 550PHEV is similar
(2) DC/DC+ charger + power distribution box: a steam plan
(3) Drive system integration: motor + transmission structure + inverter integration, this is to take Volt2 as an example, I believe that there are people behind
It should be noted that similar to Yutong's five-in-one, its main consideration is that passenger cars are more expensive, and they need to be directly replaced by customers, so that customers can continue to use the vehicles, and then pull back to the company to repair slowly, in the passenger car. To achieve this concentration, the requirements for quality and reliability are not realistic in the short term, and the maintenance strategy needs to be matched here.
5) Manufacturing situation: The most important thing here is the production line investment. I take a Magna production line arrangement to make a comparison. In fact, the manufacturing of new energy auto parts is a highly automated system.
summary:
1) I personally added some explanations. Nowadays, auto OEMs, whether local or joint venture, have strong external pressure and internal demand to make this new energy vehicle. In the choice of suppliers, it is to promote the whole vehicle to occupy high priority. Level, so here is the stage for suppliers from all over the world.
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