In 2015, the price of LED products continued to decline, and technological innovation became a great tool to improve product performance, reduce costs and optimize the supply chain. Under the pressure of terminal price pressure and profit continued to shrink, the market forced the upgrade of LED technology, which further promoted the popularization of new technology applications.
Elimination: the industry tends to mature
After Dr. Nakamura's first commercial blue LED was invented in 1993, LEDs began to enter the full-color era, but at that time LEDs were expensive, low in brightness, and limited in application. After nearly two decades of development, the LED industry has experienced the competition between flip-chip technology and formalwear technology, and the focus of LED has gradually shifted from Taiwan to mainland China. Today, many international LED companies have established production bases in China, especially In the field of LED packaging, China has become the largest market.
According to the production process, the LED industry chain is divided into upstream epitaxial wafer growth, midstream chip fabrication, downstream chip packaging and applications.
With the continuous advancement of LED technology and the gradual expansion of downstream applications, especially the rapid development of the LED lighting market, the entire LED industry has shown rapid growth in the past few years. In 2015, the global LED packaging industry market reached 112.1 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4%. The domestic LED packaging industry has been expanding in scale due to factors such as the downstream application market. In 2015, the market size of China's LED packaging industry reached 64.2 billion yuan (including imported packaging devices and international companies' production and sales in China), a year-on-year increase of 13%. .
Technically, domestic-funded packaging companies are constantly maturing in the process of competing with various foreign-invested packaging enterprises. At present, domestic enterprises are mainly concentrated in the middle and low-end packaging fields. Most LED packaging companies have little difference in technology. The difference is only the scale of production capacity, the consistency between product batches and the difference in product reliability. Some mature companies have also made major breakthroughs in high-end packaging technology. With the continuous improvement and accumulation of process technology, the domestic LED packaging enterprises have gradually increased their market share in the high-end packaging field, and their competitiveness has been continuously enhanced.
Because of the serious homogenization of products and increased competition, scale has become the best choice for many large packaging companies. Some research institutes have said that China's LED packaging industry has entered a phase of competition elimination, and the tide of mergers and acquisitions will come to an end. Since 2014, packaging companies, especially listed companies, have accelerated the pace of expansion and mergers and acquisitions. Many domestic first-line packaging companies have tried to achieve scale through restructuring, and then prioritize scale, and gradually close the gap between technology and quality of international manufacturers. Jinshajiang's successful acquisition of lumileds (although temporarily suspended by the US government), Hongli Optoelectronics' industry extension of the Internet and the Internet of Vehicles, the integration of Ruifeng Optoelectronics's same industry, the extension of Guoxing Optoelectronics chip and its controller The changes, coupled with the expansion plans of the packaging companies Mulinsen, Hongli Optoelectronics and Zhaochi shares, have all contributed to the deepening of the knockout.
In 2016, the LED lighting industry and LED packaging industry will continue to be in the industry reshuffle period. At the same time, China's 12th Five-Year Plan has come to an end. The 13th Five-Year Plan will no longer invest in LED industry subsidies. Without the support of the government, the LED elimination tournament will inevitably intensify. From the dispersal to concentration, the so-called "biger Evergrande", the rest must be strong and strong, with a comprehensive advantage of technology, management, capital, talent, etc., this is a sign that the industry tends to mature.
Difficulties: increase does not increase profits
With the continuous release of upstream production capacity, and the global economic downturn led to a sharp slowdown in the demand for LED applications, the oversupply of the packaging market has opened an unprecedented price war, the competition in the LED packaging industry has intensified, and the price war has become the norm in the market. According to relevant data, the price of China's LED mainstream packaging devices in the whole year of 2015 was down by 50%. Although the number of sales has increased a lot compared to 2014, the profit has decreased. Data shows that as the well-deserved boss of the domestic LED packaging industry, Mulinsen achieved a total operating income of 2.01 billion yuan in the first six months of 2015, an increase of 11.17% year-on-year; realized operating profit of 272 million yuan, down 7.67% year-on-year; The profit was 232 million yuan, down 7.58% year-on-year. The company's performance has already fallen.
In the fierce competition and pressure from the continued expansion of large factories, in 2015, more than one-fifth of the packaging plants opt out or quit in disguise. The LED packaging market has fallen into the situation of “incremental increase without profitâ€. There is no doubt that packaging companies need to transform and upgrade their profit structure to break the price war.
Breakout: The dawn of Hayes' law
It is believed that people in the field of electronics or semiconductors know Moore's Law: the number of circuits integrated on an integrated circuit chip doubles every 18 months, the performance of the microprocessor doubles every 18 months, or the price drops. half. After nearly half a century of "precision" predictions, this law finally began to weaken after the 2010 20-nanometer process. Moore's Law has encountered a severe test. At the crucial moment, the distinguished lecture professor at the University of California, Berkeley. Professor Hu Zhengming became the savior of the semiconductor industry. He invented a FinFET technology that can shrink the semiconductor process line width to 10 nm to 12 nm. This technology not only extends Moore's Law, but also allows us to live in this electronic information age. Faster and more convenient.
In the LED field, there is also a famous "Haitz's Law": the price of LED will be 1/10 of every 10 years, and the output lumen will increase by 20 times. Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan follow the law of Haiz with technological progress. Mainland China contributes with lower costs. However, since the company announced the release of 303 lumens in 2014, European, Japanese, Japanese and Korean Taiwanese companies have few voices. China is still "holding" Haizi's law at the expense of irrational price competition for profit, performance and longevity.
Under the pressure of terminal price and the continuous shrinking of profits, the market will inevitably force the upgrade of LED technology. Technological innovation has always been a great tool for enterprises to improve product performance, reduce costs and optimize the supply chain. So, in 2016 and in the next few years, which technologies will most likely set off the mission of continuing Heiz's law?
1. Flip-chip technology
Flip-chip LEDs have become the hotspot of LED chip companies and the mainstream of LED industry development in the past two years due to the advantages of high density and high current. Puri Optoelectronics, Dehao Runda, Jingyuan Optoelectronics, Jingke Electronics and other enterprises have invested Heavy gold research. Compared with the formal dressing, the flip-chip LED eliminates the need to hit the gold wire, which can reduce the probability of the dead light by more than 90%, ensuring the stability of the product and optimizing the heat dissipation capability of the product. At the same time, it can withstand larger current drive, achieve higher luminous flux and thinner characteristics in a smaller chip area, and is the best solution for super current drive in lighting and backlight applications. From the perspective of "the light source is smaller and the light efficiency is higher", flip-chip LED is undoubtedly the future development trend. At present, flip chip technology has been relatively mature, and the light efficiency has continued to increase, and it has entered the initial stage. As one of the leading companies in the domestic chip field, Huacan Optoelectronics has introduced flip-chip "Yao" series white LED chips with years of flip-chip research and development, which has improved the light efficiency and reliability through technology optimization, and realized chip-level fluorescent coating. For easy application directly on the COB. It is reported that Huacan Optoelectronics has realized the industrialization of high-power flip-chip LED chips.
The hottest LED technology in 2015 was CSP chip scale package, CSP package is based on flip chip technology, "flip chip + chip scale package" is a perfect combination. CSP has attracted much attention due to the industry's expectation of packaging miniaturization and cost-effectiveness. At present, CSP is gradually being applied to mobile phone flash, display backlight and other fields. CSP is widely used in the field of lighting, and it faces two major challenges of technology and cost performance. At this stage, the domestic CSP chip-level package is still in the research and development period, and will develop along the track of improving cost performance. As the scale effect of CSP products continues to be released, the price/performance ratio will be further improved. More and more lighting customers will accept CSP products in the next year or two. In 2016, various materials and accessories that are compatible with CSP will appear in large numbers.
2. Photoelectric engine
Cross-border between the various ends of the industry chain is another trend of today's packaging companies, the photoelectric engine is the cross-border of LED package to the power supply. In the early days, the photoelectric engine was also heated to "de-energize", that is, to build the power supply, reduce some components such as electrolytic capacitors and transformers, and share a substrate with the driver circuit and the LED lamp bead to achieve high integration of the driver and the LED light source. Therefore, the so-called "de-powering" is actually a pseudo-proposition. Compared with traditional LEDs, the photoelectric engine is simpler and easier to automate and mass-produce. At the same time, it can reduce the size and reduce the driving cost of the lamp by 20%-30%, effectively avoiding the damage of the LED lamp caused by the driving power. The low-cost advantage of the photoelectric engine has led to its rapid development. Now it accounts for about 10% of the LED lighting market, and it is mainly used in places where the light quality is not high, which is represented by the wall washer. Today, there are not many enterprises that do light engines in China, including Hongli Optoelectronics, Jingke Electronics, Zhonghao Optoelectronics, Xinli Light Source, Smect, Meiya Optoelectronics, Optoelectronics, and Liyang Optoelectronics.
Although there are still voltage fluctuations and heat dissipation issues to be resolved, the photovoltaic engine will become a future trend. LED industry chain is developing towards integration. In the long run, if we can let the photoelectric engine integrate more systematic information, including intelligence, induction, dimming and other functions, realize the new leap in technology, photoelectric engine There will be a large market development space.
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