According to foreign media reports, as more and more countries pave the way for electric vehicles to replace gasoline-powered vehicles, industry insiders believe that the world will experience the transformation of the greatest commodity demand since the replacement of blubber oil as lamp oil in the 19th century.
The prosperity of the electric car market is stimulating the demand for many metals. Some investors believe that this change has a profound impact on the prices of world commodities.
In the past two years, investors eager to seize the opportunity have pushed the price of lithium and cobalt, the main components of electric vehicle batteries, to double. So far in 2017, the stock price of companies that claim to have these metal deposits has soared, even if some of them have not put any products into the market.
Many investors have also found new reasons for promising some traditional metals. Compared with traditional cars, these metals are used more in the manufacture of electric and hybrid vehicles. In 2017, the prices of base metals such as nickel and copper hit many years of highs, but some metals have fallen back in recent weeks.
In addition, analysts expect that many small metals such as manganese, vanadium, and molybdenum will also become more important in the coming years.
Just as the market value of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) soared and Bitcoin soared, the change in metal demand also reflected bets on subversive but inconclusive new technologies. As more and more countries pave the way for electric cars to replace gasoline-powered cars, the most optimistic investors are convinced that the world will experience the transformation of the greatest commodity demand since the replacement of blubber oil as lamp oil in the 19th century.
Observers with more skepticism believe that the current situation is similar to that of the Internet bubble era in the late 1990s, when most investors foresaw that the Internet will change the world, but only a few are really found. Few people survived the brutal burst of the bubble and thrived in the 21st century.
Maxwell Gold, head of the ETF Securities investment strategy division, said that it is now such a critical point that the next generation of commodities will become increasingly important for industrial and economic growth.
However, he said that since this process has only just begun, it is difficult to determine the ownership of winning or losing.
Some investors said that with the increasing sales of electric vehicles, the demand for a series of metals needed to manufacture various electric vehicle parts such as batteries and wires has also increased.
According to Citigroup Inc., the demand for lithium in the automotive industry will increase by 35% annually by 2021. Morgan Stanley said that from 2017 to 2025, the demand for cobalt in the electric car industry will increase by about 450%. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s forecast shows that by 2025, electric vehicles will become the second industry with nickel consumption, demand will increase by nearly nine times. In addition, the demand for copper in the automotive and infrastructure industries is also expected to increase. Steady growth.
The forecast pointed out that the impact of electric vehicles may even be transmitted to other commodity markets. Many analysts believe that electric vehicles will curb oil demand in the coming decades.
Some investors believe that in the long run, palladium and platinum used to purify the exhaust of gasoline and diesel engines may become losers. And if battery companies find alternatives that are cheaper, even winners like cobalt may be impacted; some skeptics say that the process of finding alternative materials has begun.
These analysts believe that there are many reasons for caution. The prediction of the use of electric vehicles is easily affected by a large number of factors, such as the slowdown in global economic growth and lower gasoline prices. In addition, once the government cuts stimulus measures, it is difficult to predict how consumers are prepared to purchase electric cars. In the month after the Hong Kong government abolished a tax-free policy for electric vehicles on April 1st, sales of Tesla electric vehicles in Hong Kong have stagnated.
Increases in metal prices will often prompt companies to increase production. As supply surges into the market, it will eventually drive down metal prices.
Other challenges include insufficient charging pile infrastructure and so on. Analysts said that it is almost impossible for oil prices to rise back to the high point above 100 US dollars/barrel in 2014. Gas prices are still relatively low. At the same time, automakers and large oil companies are working together to improve the efficiency of internal combustion engines.
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