China may become a leader in nuclear reactor technology

In the World Energy Outlook 2012 (WEO2012) issued in November 2012, the International Energy Agency reduced the future expected power supply of nuclear power by about 6% from 2011. This is because of the impact of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

From the point of view of the development of energy utilization, the traditional use of biomass (such as firewood, etc.) initially followed by the transformation of the industrial revolution into fossil fuels, and in response to depletion of resources and global warming, it gradually began to detach Fossil fuels.

Regarding global warming, the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol will end in 2013 and the subsequent international framework is not yet clear. However, people are aware that fossil resources will be exhausted, that is, fossil fuel prices will remain high for a long time. The horizontal view is deep-rooted. Moreover, due to political factors, countries are also striving to get rid of their dependence on the Middle East and Russia. “Eliminating fossil dependence” has become the common basic policy of major developed countries and emerging market countries.

Prior to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nuclear power was regarded as the most promising alternative energy source in the world. However, due to concerns about safety issues, the proportion of nuclear power in Germany, Switzerland, Italy, and Japan will certainly decline. The International Energy Agency's downward adjustment of nuclear power supply forecasts by 6% is fully taking into account the future direction of these countries. However, as can be seen from the above chart, the IEA believes that other than the member countries of the European Economic Cooperation and Development Organization, other countries will continue to add nuclear power in the future. Especially in China and India, the speed of new construction and construction will be quite fast. Before 2035, China’s nuclear power will expand to about 10 times, and India will reach about 6 times. If this expectation becomes a reality, China will become the world’s largest nuclear power-holding country, and India will rank fourth after the United States and France.

China's increased use of new reactors is of concern because whether China's large number of new reactors will use the current mainstream light water reactors. As the most powerful candidate for next-generation reactors, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors are safer than light-water reactors, and both Japan and China have experimental reactors. China has a positive attitude toward real machine use. Since Japan and Europe have not seen the trend toward commercialization of new reactors, if China has accumulated rich performance in the use of high temperature gas-cooled reactors, it may become a leader in the next-generation reactor field.

On the other hand, Europe and Japan will shift their focus on investment in development resources to another option that will be free from fossil dependence - renewable energy. The IEA forecast in WEO2010 stated that by 2035, the proportion of nuclear power and renewable energy will reach 23% and 33%, respectively, in the power components of the OECD countries, but if the Fukushima nuclear power plant will be The impact of the accident is taken into account and the gap will be further expanded. The large number of renewable energy sources will presuppose the full use of smart grids equipped with storage batteries.

If China's high-temperature gas-cooled reactors increase, because the reactor is suitable for the production of hydrogen, the use of fuel cell vehicles fueled by hydrogen generated from nuclear power will also be the subject of discussion. On the other hand, smart grids and electric vehicles (EVs) have better compatibility and can be used as a buffer for power supply and demand. Differences in energy policies may even affect the country’s infrastructure and industries.