Zhang Xiaofei: LED planning is not good but bad

After the six ministries and commissions such as the National Development and Reform Commission jointly released the "Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Plan", LED concept stocks ushered in a red-hot market, including multiple LED concept stocks such as Qinshang Optoelectronics and Lehman Optoelectronics. However, some people in the industry pointed out yesterday that in fact, the plan lowered the previously proposed industrial scale target, so "the LED industry is not only not good, but even bad."

Until yesterday's close, Jufei Optoelectronics fell 6% compared with the previous day's closing price, Dehao Runda, Ruifeng Optoelectronics also fell more than 3%, Qinshang Optoelectronics rose slightly by 3%.

The reporter learned that behind the rise of LED concept stocks, the six ministries and commissions, including the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly issued the "Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Plan" on February 17, which proposed that the LED lighting industry output value reached 450 billion yuan in 2015 (including LED lighting applications). The product is 180 billion yuan, which is considered to be good for the LED concept stocks.

However, experts in the industry said that the rise in LED concept stocks is only market speculation. The plan is not good for the industry. The national policy has limited effect on the popularity of LED lighting products on the application side. Zhang Xiaofei, director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, even pointed out that the market share of traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps is stable at around 70%, which is not only good for the LED industry, but even bad.

According to the LED lighting industry plan announced by the six ministries, the annual growth rate of the output value of the LED lighting industry will reach 30%, and it will reach 450 billion yuan in 2015. Previously, it was reported that the Ministry of Science and Technology released the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Semiconductor Lighting Technology Development (Consultation Draft)” issued in May last year, and proposed that the industry scale will reach 500 billion yuan by 2015. In contrast, it can be seen that the plan introduced this time is lower than the target proposed last time. At the same time, the cultivation of 20 to 30 leading enterprises proposed in this plan has also reduced 10 to 15 companies compared with the previous plan. According to industry insiders, this shows to a certain extent the country's cautious attitude towards the development of the LED lighting industry.

In addition, the plan clearly stated that the market share of traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps should be stabilized at around 70%, and the market share of LED functional lighting products should be over 20%. Zhang Xiaofei, director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, said: "The industry generally believes that LED lighting products will have a greater impact on the traditional incandescent and energy-saving lamp products market, the market share should exceed 30%, the energy-saving lamps proposed in the plan The saying that the market share of products is stable at 70% is not good for the LED industry."

Zhang Xiaofei also believes that due to the current state subsidies for LED lighting terminal products, the LED lighting industry planning has limited effect on the accelerated popularization of LED lighting products on the application side.

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