Home appliance industry signs of obvious signs of gradual recovery gradually confirm the previous view

In August, the “Home Appliances to the Countryside” data continued the high growth trend: The Ministry of Commerce disclosed data on “Home Appliances to the Countryside” in August, of which, the sales of “home appliances to the countryside” nationwide was 8.09 million units in August, an increase of 52.4% year-on-year; sales were realized. 19.33 billion yuan, an increase of 58.3% over the same period last year. From the perspective of growth rate, the “Home Appliances to the Countryside” data continued the recent high growth trend in August, and the “home appliances going to the countryside” policy will be completely withdrawn at the end of the year. The main reason for high growth, and the continued high growth of data, is also a sign of the gradual recovery of the end market in the near future.

The year-on-year growth rate of total social retail sales of home appliances also continued to rise: According to statistics from the Statistics Bureau, the recent year-on-year growth in the total social retail sales of home appliances also showed a sustained upward trend, and its growth rate gradually steadily increased from 0.50% in May to August. 12.10%, which also confirms to some extent the gradual recovery of terminal sales; the reason for the continuous improvement of the terminal market lies in the fact that enterprises and chain stores have increased their promotional efforts; on the other hand, the policy overdraft effect has gradually eased to some extent. The terminal market has gradually improved. With the emergence of new energy-saving effects, the terminal market is expected to further improve.

Air-conditioning data in Zhongyikang improved, and the three major leaders also improved: According to the data of air-conditioning terminals monitored by Yikang, in the context of the traditional sales season, the decline in domestic retail sales of air-conditioning terminals since May has continued to shrink from the previous month ( In July, the retail volume of air-conditioned terminals only fell 2.63% year-on-year, and retail sales fell 1.83% year-on-year. According to information we have learned, in August Gree's domestic sales growth rate was around 10%, and the United States is expected to be flat with the same period of last year, and Haier’s sales growth in August under the influence of channel adjustment is expected to reach 50%, which is expected to be lower than the base figure. Real estate warming, e-commerce promotion and subsidy of the new policy, such as the introduction of favorable factors, the recent increase in air-conditioning terminal sales is expected to gradually turn positive.

Enterprises and channel inventory return to rationality, and shipment growth rate is expected to stabilize: According to the information obtained from the mid-year report and channel research disclosed by listed companies, all household electrical appliance products, especially air-conditioning companies and channel inventory, have returned to rationality. According to the information released by the industry online, inventory of air-conditioner and washing machine companies fell by 23.8% and 19.03% year-on-year in July, respectively. Since the beginning of the year, inventory of air conditioners and washing machines have continued to show negative growth. With the gradual recovery of terminal sales and channel inventory levels have dropped to a reasonable level, the company's shipment growth is expected to gradually stabilize, and the scale of production is gradually eliminated by the factors of inventory inhibition.

Reaffirming the industry's "be bullish" rating: From the quarterly improvement trend of various industries in the mid-term report, the home appliance industry is in a strong position in many industries, and is expected to lead other industries to go positive under the influence of the base; on the other hand, with the gradual recovery of terminal sales, The division of performance of the sector is still expected to continue. Leading advantages will be gradually demonstrated, and the growth rate of performance will be more certainty. In addition, the valuation of leading com- pany has bottomed out. With the gradual improvement of shipment growth, the valuation is expected to be improved. We reiterate the industry's "look" rating and continue to recommend.

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