The new energy bus field sees a policy of eating, and it immediately falls into a frozen state after subsidizing the retreat. Affected by the new energy subsidy retreat policy, in 2017 pure electric buses ended up with sales of 89,000 vehicles, a drop of 23%. The performance of related companies showed a decline. According to the statistics of the reporter, as of March 27, in the announced performance, the car segment's passenger car segment performance has plummeted, with only a few achieving better results.
In 2017, the performance of vehicle-listed companies including BYD, Zhongtong Bus, Ankai Bus, Shuguang Stock, Foton Motors and many other bus-car companies had a significant decline. Among them, the net profit of Zhongtong Bus dropped by 78%, which was the second consecutive year when Zhongtong Bus fell sharply. We previously took the lead in pointing out that the 6-8-meter electric bus was the worst-hit area for companies to illegally withdraw subsidies. However, in addition to the illegal subsidy, the ultra-high subsidies for electric buses have resulted in the emergence of corporate performance. This phenomenon of "abnormality" develops. Zhongtong Bus is one of the typical cases.
However, there are still a few car companies that have withstood the test in the face of subsidies, such as BYD and Yutong Bus. Although both profits have been affected, they have achieved minimal impact by exploiting international markets and improving product mix. Golden Dragon Motor Co., Ltd. achieved a change from loss to profit, but this is mainly due to subsidies and credits. On the other hand, its subsidiary Suzhou Jinlong Company resumed production and sales of new energy bus products, and the subsidiary company The compliant vehicles that have been completed and sold between January 2016 and September 2016 can apply for central government subsidy income, which has been confirmed; on the other hand, receivables that are expected to reverse the guarantee losses and are subject to impairment testing alone The impairment provision was reversed, resulting in a net profit attributable to the parent company shareholders of approximately RMB 70 million.
The performance of the company's annual report exposes the status quo of excessive overdraft and policy madness in this market. In this context, the essence of the market's profit-making becomes more obvious. Some small "game players" began to withdraw from the effects of subsidy slope, and the production and sales volume dropped dramatically. Take Shuguang shares as an example. In the first two months of 2018, it produced only one new energy bus and its sales volume was zero. And more companies choose to set off overseas markets and accelerate the transition to the logistics vehicle market. "After the carnival, how new energy vehicles will continue to develop, finding a market will be the major problem for the future," a new energy car manufacturer told reporters. In 2018, the market outlook is not optimistic. “In order to pursue high subsidies and catch up with the last train, the new energy bus field has actually appeared in advance consumption phenomenon.†Xie Guangyao, chief editor of the first commercial vehicle network, said. The industry expects to produce and sell 70,000 - 75,000 pure-electric passenger cars in the year of 2018, a year-on-year decrease of more than 15%.
Once again the performance of the collective collapse
The subsidies directly affected the vehicle companies that include new energy buses. According to BYD's 2017 annual report released on March 28, BYD's auto business revenue was 56.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%; the gross profit rate of related products was 3.93% lower than that of 2016. The subsidy for each pure electric bus dropped by 135,000 yuan, which has a relatively large impact on the profitability of BYD's new energy auto business. In the annual report, BYD estimates the net profit for the first quarter of 2018, with a net profit range of approximately RMB 50 million to RMB 150 million, which is expected to decline by 75.2% from the same period last year to 91.8%.
Yutong Bus is currently the largest company in China's pure electric bus market, accounting for 23% of the total. In 2017, its production and sales data showed that production and sales fell by 5.29% and 4.82%, respectively, of which sales of medium-sized passenger cars declined by more than 15%. In terms of revenue from net revenues, the third quarterly report released by Yutong Bus in 2017 showed that from January to September 2017, operating revenue was 18.895 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 19.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.43%. If there is no large amount of revenue, its 2017 earnings will keep falling.
The days of other bus companies are even worse. Zhongtong Bus reported in the third quarter of 2017 that the company's operating income for the first three quarters was 4.505 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.68%; net profit was 122 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.2183%. It is expected to be listed in 2017. The net profit of the company’s shareholders was 170 million to 230 million, a year-on-year change of -70.98% to -6.775%, and the average net profit growth rate of the auto vehicle industry was -5.19%.
In addition, Ankai Bus disclosed its annual report on the evening of March 20. The company achieved operating revenue of 5.449 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 14.54% year-on-year; net profit loss was 230 million yuan. The company's profit for the same period last year was 51.35 million yuan. In 2017, the company achieved sales of 8,717 passenger cars, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. After restoring new energy subsidies, operating income decreased by 18.25% year-on-year. Due to the impairment provision for accrued receivables, the company's operating losses in 2017.
Except for the operating losses of bus companies, the risk of recovering receivables from sales of new energy buses has already begun to be exposed. The provision for bad debts of accounts receivable for Ankai bus in 2017 was RMB 166 million, provision for bad debts of other receivables was RMB 48 million, and the provision for bad debts of accounts receivable totaled 2.14 100 million yuan. As of the end of 2017, the receivables of Ankai Bus (the sum of accounts receivable and other receivables) was 4.599 billion yuan. In the same period, the net assets of the company was only 1.14 billion yuan, and the receivables were the net of the company. 4.03 times the assets.
The huge amount of receivables not only increased the company’s impairment pressure, but also brought heavy financial pressure. According to the financial report, in 2017, the financial cost of Ankai Bus was RMB 72.49 million. In 2015, this figure was only RMB 11.81 million. In two years, the increase in financial expenses was as high as 513.8%.
At present, many new energy bus companies have huge accounts receivable. As of the end of 2017, the accounts receivable of Yutong Bus was RMB 15.805 billion; the accounts receivable of Zhongtong Bus was RMB 5.542 billion; the accounts receivable of Jinlong Bus was RMB 10.229 billion. The accounts receivable of the three car companies accounted for 119.07%, 270.25% and 204.27% of their net assets for the same period respectively. The depreciation of assets of a large amount of accounts receivable may become the killer of the performance of new energy bus companies. In this case, BYD, the second largest in the market, has the largest amount of receivables among the many new energy bus companies, which is as high as RMB 51.677 billion, and the pressure is very high.
In response to this, Xie Guangyao said in an interview with reporters that when a bus company purchases a passenger car, it is usually an unavoidable reality that the car company only pays the down payment of 30% of the down payment for the bus company, and then repays the mortgage. This leads to pressure on the bus company side.
The formation of new energy bus oligopoly market
The good day is over. With the changes in the national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the new energy subsidy will shift from the “Preferential System†to R&D. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance previously made it clear that subsidies for new energy vehicles will continue to raise barriers to entry of companies and products in the list of recommended models, so that products with advanced technology and high market acceptance can receive financial subsidies, and on the contrary, they will receive no subsidies. Promote enterprises to accelerate technological progress and promote superior enterprises to become stronger and stronger.
In comparison, in the future, Yutong and BYD enterprises that have the right to speak with technical standards and parameters will be more likely to receive financial subsidies. The obvious trend is that the oligopoly market pattern for new energy vehicles has been formed. In addition to several major leading enterprises, accelerating the transformation is almost a challenge that many small and medium-sized enterprises must face in 2018 – with the subsidy of new energy buses With the improvement of subsidies and technical standards, many new energy bus companies that do not have core competitiveness have accelerated their transformation. At the same time, however, most companies will not withdraw from this market due to scarcity of qualifications.
Some changes are taking place. First of all, some bus companies began to shift their focus to mitigate market risks. Some small game players began to withdraw from the effects of subsidy and declining slopes, and production and sales volumes plummeted dramatically. Taking Shuguang as an example, the production and sales bulletin issued by Shuguang Co., Ltd. (600303.SH) in 2018 showed that the company produced 1 new energy bus in 2018, a drop of 99.21 compared with 127 in the same period of last year. %; In the same period, sales of new energy buses are zero, and in the future, Shuguang will focus its efforts on the main product Yellow Sea pickup.
In addition, in 2017, some companies shifted their focus to new energy logistics vehicles. Such as Nanjing Jinlong, Zhongtong Bus, Jiangsu Jiulong, Yantai Shu Chi and so on. “The attractiveness of foreign capital in the new energy bus market is constantly weakening, but it is another branch of the new energy commercial vehicle market – the attraction of new energy logistics vehicles is increasing,†said Xie Guangyao.
Xie Guangyao said that taking Geely's commercial vehicle as an example, when it first entered the market, it was also ambitious and hoped to make achievements in the field of passenger cars, commercial vehicles and electric logistics vehicles. But now, the proportion of its electric logistics vehicles far exceeds that of passenger cars. "It is not that we want to withdraw from this market. It is the inclination of resources.
For leading companies, looking for new opportunities will be a strategic move in 2018. At present, the penetration rate of new energy buses in the first and second tier cities is relatively high, and the market is relatively mature. However, the third and fourth tier cities still have much room for development. In addition, bus companies headed by Yutong Bus and BYD are also exploring overseas markets such as Europe and the United States.
In 2017, in the area of ​​pure electric buses, Yutong Bus, BYD, Zhongtong Bus and Zhuhai Yinlong continued to maintain their top 4 status without change. They respectively produced 20,000 pure electric buses, 127,000 vehicles, 7,000 vehicles and 66,626 vehicles. The shares were 22.6%, 14.4%, 7.9% and 7.5% respectively. At the same time, Shanghai Shenlong and CRRC Electric have become dark horses in the industry, and their momentum is fiercer. The controlling shareholder of Shanghai Shenlong is Dongxu Optoelectronics, a listed company, while CRRC Electric is backed by China CRRC.
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