By 2030, the economic efficiency of new energy vehicles will gradually become prominent, and the substitution of petroleum will continue to expand, but it will not be subversive, mainly concentrated on road gasoline that accounts for 20% of oil consumption.
On November 8, the China National Petroleum Corporation and the Japan Institute of Energy Economics jointly organized the 11th China-Japan Oil and Gas Market Research Results Exchange Conference. The exchange will discuss the opportunities and challenges of the Asian oil and gas market. The Chinese side mainly revolved around the replacement of traditional energy sources by the development of new energy vehicles in China.
“When new energy vehicles have the strength to compete with fuel vehicles, the era of oil peaks will come.†Dai Jiaquan, director of the Institute of Petroleum Research Institute of PetroChina Institute of Economics and Technology, told the Interfax News Agency that the average unit of power batteries for new energy vehicles When the cost is reduced to 775 yuan/kWh, the economy will be roughly the same as the fuel vehicle. According to the forecast of the Research Institute of Economy and Technology of PetroChina, the cost of the new energy vehicle battery in 2017 is 1700 yuan/kWh.
"About 2030, the cost of new energy vehicles is economically competitive with that of fuel vehicles." Dai Jiaquan said at the conference that due to the fall in material costs, energy density, battery PACKs, and economies of scale, the four main reasons are: It is estimated that the domestic new energy automobile power battery will be reduced to 700 yuan/kWh in 2030. "Considering that the automobile life span is 10-15 years, China needs to ban the sale of fuel vehicles after 2040." He said that by 2050, the proportion of China's fuel vehicle ownership in all car ownership should not exceed 15%.
“In terms of comprehensive mileage, ownership, etc., it is expected that new energy vehicles will replace 403 million tons of oil equivalent in 2020, accounting for 1% of the total domestic product oil in the year; replacing 2048 million tons of oil equivalent in 2030, accounting for the total product oil of the year. The amount of 6.7%." China National Petroleum Institute of Economic and Technology in the report pointed out at the meeting.
Despite the continuous decline in costs, the growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down this year. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China were 398,000 vehicles in the first nine months of this year, an increase of 37.7% year-on-year. Last year, China’s auto sales were 28.03 million, and new energy vehicles were 507,000, an increase of 53% over the same period last year. 1.81% of total car sales. In the same year, the proportion of global new energy vehicles was 0.8%.
The market structure of new energy vehicles is also constantly adjusted. Domestic new energy vehicles are mainly divided into two categories: pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles. In terms of market structure, plug-in hybrid powertrains have shrunk significantly. In the first nine months of this year, pure electric vehicles accounted for approximately 82% of sales, and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for approximately 18%. In 2014, this ratio was 40%.
"This is a sensitive response to new energy vehicles' policy changes." Dai Jiaquan said that at present, the development policy of new energy vehicles has a greater impact, and the market has not played a decisive role.
In the first half of this year, the demand for new energy vehicle batteries showed a negative year-on-year growth due to subsidy retreats and reassessment of management access standards. At the same time, subsidies for new energy commercial vehicles, which account for nearly 30% of new energy vehicles, have fallen by more than 50%, and new energy vehicles purchased by non-individual users have been required to apply for subsidies, and the accumulated mileage must reach 30,000 kilometers.
“The problem of mileage is essentially a cost issue, which can be solved by adding more batteries.†Dai Jiaquan said that the relative high cost is still the most important factor restricting the development of new energy vehicles. According to the 100 kilometer power consumption of pure electric passenger cars, the power consumption is 15kWh. The specific energy of the battery is 150Wh/kg.
The 200kg battery can last for 20,000 kilometers. Adding another identical battery can achieve the best cruising range of 40,000 kilometers, but the cost will also increase. "The future of new energy vehicles will be based on passenger cars (private cars short-term)." He said.
Overall, policies are still vigorously driving the development of new energy vehicles. On September 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Measures for the Concurrent Management of Passenger Vehicles' Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Integration." According to the document, passenger car companies with annual production or import volume of less than 30,000 vehicles for traditional energy passenger vehicles do not set requirements for new energy vehicle points; if they reach more than 30,000 vehicles, new energy sources will be set up from 2019 onwards. The proportion of car points, including fuel consumption points and new energy car points. Among them, the proportion of new energy vehicles in 2019 and 2020 will be 10% and 12%, respectively, and the proportion will be announced separately by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
"The positive and negative point trading funds between car companies will replace state subsidy funds, which will stimulate the development momentum of car companies." Dai Jiaquan said that in the context of the implementation of double points system, fuel consumption points can be carried forward, and new energy car points can be traded. New energy vehicles have become a major task indicator for the development of car companies.
"The alternative focus of new energy vehicles is road gasoline, which accounts for about 20% of total oil consumption." Dai Jiaquan told the Interfax News reporter that China's transportation sector used about 290 million tons of oil last year, accounting for 51 of the total domestic oil consumption. %; of these, 117 million tons are used for highway gasoline, accounting for about 20% of total oil consumption.
In addition to gasoline for road use, the report of the China National Petroleum Technology and Economic Research Institute stated that the alternative energy of new energy vehicles is not strong for other transportation oils. Among them, the power of highway diesel power, jet fuel, and water-based fuel oil can hardly be replaced. Railway diesel oil is Electrification of railways has gradually increased. "Before 2030, the substitution of new energy vehicles for oil products gradually expanded, but it was not subversive."
"The key to the development of new energy vehicles lies in whether they can optimize the country's energy structure, that is, not increase the consumption of coal, resulting in a counter-replacement of coal against oil." Dai Jiaquan said that from the perspective of the entire life cycle, the environmental significance of new energy vehicles needs to be strengthened.
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