The traditional optical market shrinks crystal photoelectric performance during the year or is difficult to improve

Recently, a paper report issued by Crystal Optoelectronics (002273.SZ) has disappointed many investors. In the first half of this year, the company's operating income was 283 million yuan, an increase of 19.38% year-on-year; net profit was 56.743 million yuan, an increase of 30.66%. At the same time, the company expects the growth rate of the first three quarters to be -10% to 10%, which means that the performance in the first three quarters may decline.

Statistics show that, unlike the previous high growth expectations for the market, Crystal Optoelectronics' ROE levels have been declining year after year since 2010.

The performance during the year may be difficult to improve

In the first quarter of this year, Crystal Optoelectronics' net profit growth rate was as high as 131.59%, and its performance was quite bright. As of the first half of this year, the company's net profit growth rate was only 30.66%, which is only the lower limit of the previous forecast performance (the company expects in the quarterly report) The proportion of performance growth is 30% to 50%), and many investors exclaimed "disappointment."

Due to the good performance and the concept of smart glasses, Crystal Optoelectronics was given a high valuation by the market. The stock price reached an all-time high of 27.49 yuan in April this year.

The company said that although the third quarter is the peak season of the traditional optical industry, the digital camera market will increase in the chain. The blue glass infrared cut-off filters and components for high-end smartphones at home and abroad will increase, but the growth rate of the traditional optical market is not as good as last year. In the same period, the decline in prices and changes in exchange rate fluctuations will directly affect the growth of sales revenue.

The company's "traditional optical market" refers to low-end and mid-range digital cameras. With the improvement of smart phone photography functions, the market space for such products seems to be getting smaller and smaller.

According to the Japan Camera Imaging Equipment Industry Association, the number of global digital camera shipments in the first half of this year was 29.743 million, down 42.7% year-on-year. Guosen Securities believes that the shrinking of the global digital camera market directly led to a decline in the company's optical low-pass filter and CoverGlass business revenue.

“The fundamental reason why low-end and mid-range digital cameras can seize the market is convenience and low price. Now there are more convenient and cheaper smartphones, and with the advancement of technology, the quality of smartphones is increasing, and it is foreseeable. In the end, smartphones will most likely replace the status of low-end digital cameras. Therefore, Crystal Optoelectronics will continue to face the adverse effects of the poor digital camera market in the future.” CIC China Senior Research Fellow He Zaihua is accepting the First Financial Daily. "Financial Business" reporter said in an interview.

He believes that although the company has changed its strategy in a timely manner and increased the sales of related devices in the domestic mobile phone market, the transformation process is relatively long due to the large business of the medium and low-end digital cameras. Therefore, in the short to medium term, the company's performance growth is likely to decline further.

Kong Wenjun, the company's director, believes that because of the particularly good net profit in the third quarter of last year, it has obtained a net profit of nearly 59 million yuan. Although the digital camera business has increased from the previous quarter, there is still a gap compared with last year.

Some analysts believe that although the crystal photoelectric sapphire IRCF, LED sapphire substrate business growth is good, but the company still faces some challenges in 2013: First, the company's optical low-pass filter, package CMOS Cover, etc. are used for digital Cameras, while low-end and mid-range digital cameras are being impacted by smartphones, consumer demand for digital cameras is shrinking. Second, the depreciation of the yen will still have a certain negative impact on the company, because the company’s main customers are still Japanese manufacturers. Mostly. Therefore, the external environment faced by the company in 2013 is relatively more complicated.

He Zaihua believes that the decline in the company's recent performance growth rate is partly affected by the downward pressure on the economy, and on the other hand by the impact of smart phones.

"The recent performance of Crystal Optoelectronics is not optimistic. The current valuation is relatively high. There are not many opportunities this year. It is likely that there will be more investment opportunities next year," said an industry source.

ROE levels have fallen for three consecutive years

With a variety of product reserves and smart glasses concept, Crystal Optoelectronics has attracted much attention from the market, many institutions have bought, which also brought the rising price of Crystal Optoelectronics.

The statistics show that Crystal Optoelectronics' return on equity has been declining year by year in the past three years. Its return on equity (ROE) from 2010 to 2012 was 21.07%, 17.09%, and 14.72%, respectively.

From the perspective of DuPont analysis, the company's return on net assets is declining year by year because the turnover efficiency of its assets is decreasing year by year.

From 2010 to 2012, the company's total asset turnover rate was 0.65 times, 0.54 times and 0.53 times, respectively, which is in decline year by year. Specifically, the company's inventory turnover days were 73.68 days, 105.8 days, and 112.69 days, respectively. However, in this year's mid-year report, the company's inventory turnover days were 106 days, an increase from last year.

As of June 30, the number of shareholders of Crystal Optoelectronics was 28,465, an increase of 194.49% compared with 9,666 at the end of the first quarter. It can be seen that during this period of time, many retail investors bought Crystal Optoelectronics, and the quilt is probably not a minority.

After the release of the bright quarterly results, Crystal Optoelectronics ushered in the lifting of the ban on equity-inviting restricted shares on May 2 this year, accounting for 0.64% of the total number of shares in circulation, accounting for 0.57% of the total share capital.

Since June 17th, Crystal Optoelectronics executives have ushered in multiple reductions.

Taking July 3 as an example, the chairman and general manager Lin Min, deputy general manager Li Xiayun and Zhou Jianjun, director and deputy general manager Sheng Yongjiang, four senior executives collectively reduced their holdings through the block trade, the transaction price was 19.56 yuan / share.

In addition, the controlling shareholder Star Group Co., Ltd. has previously reduced the holding of 5 million shares of Crystal Photovoltaic Unrestricted Circulation through the block trading method, accounting for 1.33% of the total share capital, and the average price of the shareholding is 20.19 yuan/share. Star Group is the controlling shareholder of Crystal Optoelectronics. After this reduction, the shareholding ratio fell to 27.03%, still the company's largest shareholder.

He said in China: "The main risk faced by the company comes from the impact of smart phones; in addition, since almost half of the company's main revenue comes from exports, and now the international economic situation is changing, it also faces greater risk of exchange rate fluctuations. With the development of the smart phone market and the re-emergence of the LED industry, there are two main futures: one is the sales of mobile phone related device products, and the other is the LED sapphire substrate business."

( This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED . Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves. )

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